The Last Crusade

– search for the investment strategy Holy Grail

I am one of those industry veterans who, whilst still having some way to go before retirement age, can boast 30+ years of experience in investment management.  The earliest of those years was spent managing discretionary portfolios totalling some £40m of private client moneys (I am talking the 1970/80s here!).  Although slightly more removed from the coal face these days my interest in the industry search for the Holy Grail of investment strategy remains just as strong as ever.

 The ideal combination of low costs, low charges, competitive performance and minimal drawdowns (reductions in value) has eluded academics and practitioners alike ever since stockmarkets evolved almost two centuries ago.  Index trackers and absolute/hedge funds have been the most recent attempts but both have failed miserably to deliver anything remotely resembling consistent upward-only performance.

After all this time it is pretty clear that the emotional drivers behind efficient stockmarkets, the urge to speculate in shares, means that there isn’t and never will be a formula for achieving consistent stockmarket returns.  However, my study of markets over the last 120 years and more does indicate that markets undoubtedly move in both short and long term trends, normally linked to economic and political factors at play in the global commercial world.  Trend following (and trading strategies through the use of moving averages) has also, therefore, been a feature of investment management for a long time.

It is therefore with great pleasure and amusement that I have discovered that a combination of trend-following and trading triggers, based on moving averages, has now been demonstrated to be the most reliable means of managing a portfolio over the medium to log term – BUT ONLY if all subjective and emotional human input is removed from the management equation!  Extensive research from professors at the City-based Cass Business School has indicated that investment performance is enhanced and volatility reduced by adopting a purely mechanical but entirely logical process to manage investment portfolios.

I am also delighted to add that the practical application of this research has been brought to WAY Fund Managers courtesy of Hasley Investment Managers (and their captive professors from the business school) and is now available to investors via the WAY Hasley Global Momentum Fund.  This fund invests in 24 mature stockmarkets via 14 low-cost ETFs, with each ETF being invested, or not, each month depending on a moving average trigger.  The process means that the fund can be up to a month or more late in joining any particular trend, depending on precisely when it started, but that it tends to fully participate in all long term up-trends and totally avoid all long-term down-trends.  The (back-tested) result shows impressive performance and great risk-aversion.  I can commend it to you as a major core holding for virtually any long term portfolio.

Associated Links:

1 Website: WAY Hasley Global Momentum Fund
2 Website: Cass Business School (City University London)
3 Website: Hasley Investment Management LLP

Paul Wilcox
Chairman & Technical Director, WAY Group
11th May 2011
www.waygroup.co.uk

Posted on 11th May, 2011 | Tags: , , , |
Comments: Have Your Say

Welcome to Paul Wilcox’s blog. The views expressed here are his or those of other registered users. They are not those of the WAY Group unless specifically stated. The WAY Group retains full editorial control over the material published on the site and may edit or remove content when it is deemed appropriate to do so. Paul Wilcox’s blog site is subject to the following: Terms and Conditions and is intended for professional advisers only and is not directed at private individuals.